The first hold at 2.25%, and the 2020 renewal cohort
The Bank holds, and prime stays at 4.45%. After two years of near-constant movement in one direction or the other, rates are flat.
The group this matters most to in Toronto right now is the 2020 cohort. A five-year fixed taken in late 2020 was somewhere near 2%; those mortgages are maturing now. On a $650,000 balance the payment difference between then and today is several hundred dollars a month, and no rate cut that is plausibly coming will close that gap.
If that is your renewal, two things are worth doing. Start about four months out, not four weeks — that is enough time to have a rate held while you look. And treat the renewal letter as an opening offer rather than a decision: moving a mortgage to another lender at maturity, on the same terms, does not require re-qualifying under the stress test, which means the range of options is wider than most people assume. If you need to extend the amortization to make the payment work, that is a different and more involved conversation, and worth having early.
November brought 5,010 sales at an average of $1,039,458, with inventory around 4.8 months. Quiet, well-supplied, and a reasonable time to be a buyer with financing in place.
What the Bank said
“The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high.”
The rate path around this decision
For context, unemployment was running at about 6.8% and inflation at 2.4% around this decision.
Where this leaves you
Rate announcements make headlines; approvals turn on your own numbers. If you're buying, renewing or refinancing in Toronto, the useful next step is finding out what you actually qualify for — see current rates, run the math, or start an application. You can also follow the local market in our Toronto housing market reports.